Share price and valuation analysis

AWR Lloyd helps listed companies to understand their historic share price and total shareholder returns (‘TSR’) performance. We can also then forecast target share price performance into the future based on alternative growth plans and scenarios.

AWR Lloyd can alternatively conduct valuation analysis of non-listed assets and businesses, for example if a client wishes to consider divestment. AWR Lloyd uses best practice discounted cash flow (‘DCF’), peer multiples and combined DCF-multiples methods.

We help companies to analyze whether their share prices are trading above or below ‘fair value’ – and what tools a company can deploy to close any gaps*. We also help listed companies to assess whether they are trading in line with other listed market peers – or whether they are trading at a discount or premium to market multiples. If we reveal significant differences between share price performance and fair value or peer market multiples we then help our clients to understand why – and what they can do about it.

*Note: AWR Lloyd Fair Value Gap Analysis is a proprietary AWR Lloyd analytical tool

For example

AWR Lloyd conducted an evaluation of a multi-billion dollar Asian mining client’s share price and revealed both a significant discount to fair value (approximately 30%) and to peer multiples (10-20%).

We conducted a ‘Market Signals Analysis’ involving fund manager interviews to help assess the reasons for the discounts.

We recommended an asset restructuring strategy, share buy-backs, an ESOP scheme and improvements to the company’s investor relations disclosure and communication programme.